According to research published in the journa lof Nature Climate Change, at least 85 percent of the world’s population has felt the effects of our changing climate.
As countries around the world report another year of extreme rainfall, rampant wildfires, and deadly heat waves, I met with IAG’s Principal Specialist in Meteorology, Dr Bruce Buckley, to discuss New Zealand’s predicted weather and what this could mean for increased risk for commercial businesses.
What the seasonal outlook tells us
With more than 40 years’ experience in forecasting and studying weather patterns, Bruce is IAG’s bona fide weatherman. Bruce explained that we’re already seeing considerable anomalies in Pacific-Ocean Sea surface temperatures, which are the driving force behind New Zealand’s weather patterns.
In some places, sea temperatures are already around three degrees higher than usual, which strongly suggests spring and summer weather conditions are going to be far from normal. And in case you’re wondering, Bruce has absolutely zero doubt that these irregularities are linked to our changing climate.
Heightened risk of heavy rain and wildfire
Our weather analysis predicts that warmer waters will make it easier for tropical lows to sweep southward and affect New Zealand, exposing northern parts of the North Island to increased flash and river flood risk in summer, especially in 2022 and into autumn.
It’s also predicted the east coast of the South Island will have an increased risk of late season heavy rain, with hotter than normal temperatures also expected in the Canterbury and Otago regions. Hail events, although rare, look to have slightly elevated risks as well.
An increased wildfire risk is also predicted in areas to the east of the Alps, predominantly due to warmer than usual temperatures creating excellent conditions for wildfires – including producing plenty of fuel in the form of dried-up vegetation.
How businesses can prepare
The good news is that with enough warning there are several things businesses can do to reduce loss from flooding and fire.
Reducing loss from surface flooding
• Know the risk - it’s unlikely your stormwater infrastructure has been designed to carry away the amount of water that drops during an unprecedented heavy rain event. Water will flow downhill, and even shallow flooding can cause significant damage and interruption to your business. So find out where your site’s overland flow paths are (the tracks that water would take if the stormwater system gets overwhelmed) to see where the water is likely to collect. Auckland council has a handy guide on their website on how to recognise these and other local authorities should have similar resources.
• Once you know your risk, control it – reduce the impact of surface flooding and protect your assets.
You can do this by:
1. Cleaning and clearing stormwater grates, gutters, culverts and drains.
2. Keeping overland flow paths free of obstructions. This allows the system to move water away from your site.
3. Making sure critical plant and machinery, stock and inventory is away from flood prone areas or elevated off the ground. It’s also worth considering whether you’d be able to access these things during a flood, or whether it’s worth relocating them.
Reducing loss from fire
• Create a clear zone around your buildings and assets, clear it of trees, grass and shrubs.
This will slow the spread of fire and gives Fire Emergency New Zealand (FENZ) a safe area to work in, giving them a better chance of protecting your site.
• Keep an eye on ignition sources – fires need fuel to grow. Three of the main reasons for a fire starting is from hot working, contact with hot surfaces and electrical malfunction so carry out a survey of your site to identify any potential ignition sources:
1. Hot working: visit the Risk solutions area on our NZI website for a hot work Risk Management Guide which shares how to help control the risk of fire as a result of welding, cutting, and grinding works.
2. Contact with hot surfaces: keep hot surfaces well clear of combustibles. This includes all flues and ducting, and vehicle exhausts.
3. Electrical malfunction: as we head into a period of heightened wildfire risk, we suggest calling a registered electrician to inspect your site’s electrical infrastructure and repair any defective parts.
• Have a plan and be prepared: seconds count when it comes to fire and being prepared can help reduce the severity of any fire loss.
1. Build fire safety into your contractor and staff induction programme.
2. Go through your fire safety plan at the beginning of each week, and display posters educating on fire risk and what to do if a fire develops around your site.
3. Make sure your site has adequate Hand Operated Fire Fighting Equipment and that everyone knows how to use it.
If you take one thing away from our seasonal outlook, it’s to plan, plan and then plan again.
